Is our "scenic and rural" future secure? Our Comprehensive Plan calls for keeping Madison County scenic, rural, and agricultural in nature. This plan reflects the desires of the many Madison County residents who attended the public hearings to review our Comprehensive Plan. I think it could also be said that this is the prevailing view of the greater number of Madison landowners.

     In this article I will present the results of research I have done on growth and development patterns in Madison County over the past twelve years. I have studied county real estate, building permits, the budget, and census data. The data suggests that we are at risk of losing our scenic and rural nature.

     Between 1990 and 2000, the growth rate in Madison County averaged a slow .5% per year, or 4.8% over this ten year period. Our Board of Supervisors and Planning Commission (and their predecessors) deserve credit and our thanks for developing policies and ordinances that have helped prevent excessive subdivision and housing development.

     But is this the end of the story? Is our scenic and rural future secure? I'm afraid the numbers tell a different story. From 1991 through 2000 the county building office issued 940 permits to build new dwellings and 461 new building lots were approved. Quite a modest number. But, in direct conflict with the stated goals of our Comprehensive Plan, 81% of these subdivisions took place in land zoned agricultural or conservation, not residential. This represents a disturbing trend. Our comprehensive plan very clearly states that residential growth should occur in the village centers and in and around the town of Madison. If this trend continues, what will happen to the stretches of open land in Madison County?

     Today there are about 5,000 households in Madison County with an average of 2.6 persons per household. No official build-out analysis has been done, but I have estimated that today there are an additional 2400 parcels of land in Madison County on which a house could be built. Based on our current subdivision ordinance, Madison landowners could create an additional 7500 building lots. This puts a whole new look on the potential growth for Madison County. Will this actually happen? I'm not sure, but with the counties to our North, East, and South growing at five and ten times our rate it is definitely a possibility. Our planning process should recognize and monitor these trends and consider their impact on Madison's scenic and rural character.

     One has only to look at the headlines in the newspapers of the surrounding counties to see the pains those counties are experiencing due to unplanned growth. Whether it happens slowly or rapidly, as Madison citizens we need to recognize the potential exists to lose what we cherish.

     If we are not pro-active, outside forces will impose their will upon us and we will lose our scenic and rural character.

Robert Miller - August 2005